Of course Avatar is going to clean up at the Oscars! It will be a great pity though. Yes, it was groundbreaking in terms of animation and the much needed lesson in biodiversity was conveyed in a ‘cool’ medium that would engage younger audiences.

Yet the incredibly pompous James Cameron forgot all about narrative, character development and the underrated power of subtlety. Give him an Oscar for art direction or special effects, but Best Picture? No. That honour should to go one of the other 9 nominees, or even better, to the astonishing ‘A Single Man’ which was not nominated at all.

Best Picture

For the first time since 1943 there are 10 nominees, instead of the usual 5. What does that mean? Diddlysquat according to Time Magazine. “It’s like filling out the Kentucky Derby field with five Central Park carriage horses.”

The racehorses referred to would be Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Up in the Air, Inglorious Bastards and Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire, and the ‘Central Park carriage horses’ are District 9, A Serious Man, Up, An Education and The Blind Side.

Obviously our blood would pump proudly South African if District 9 (www.RottenTomatoes.com score 90%) came up trumps, but there is a bigger chance for Bafana Bafana to win the 2010 World Cup than for Neil Blomkamp to be called up to receive a little gold statue. Still we appreciate the nomination.

A Serious Man (RT score 87%) is apparently too Jewish and anti-Semitic to win. I can’t figure that one out, but then I have not seen the film so I reserve judgment.

Up (RT score 98%) was nominated in both the Best Picture and Best Animated Feature categories. Even though it is recognition for Pixars inspired work, ultimately it will not beat the likes of Avatar or The Hurt Locker, but surely win Best Animated Feature.

An Education (RT score 94%) has launched the career of Carey Mulligan but it won’t do much more than that. The Blind Side (RT score 70%), was only nominated because of Sandra Bullock’s irresistible charm.

Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire (91%) was co-produced and punted by Oprah. That is enough to put the Academy off. I am only kidding. It was a surprise hit that took $47million at the box office, but I fear it will suffer the same fate as the Tarantino thrill ride, Inglorious Bastards (RT score 88%) – it will not be able to stand up against the three main contenders for Best Picture.

Up in the Air (RT score 90%) is one of those rare occurrences. It is quite a serious, intricate film but its gentle humour and George Clooney charm made it a popular hit. It took $82million at the box office! This would be my choice for Best Picture, but then it is not up to me. The powers that be have decided that that 2010 Best Picture category is a two horse race between James Cameron and his ex-wife, Kathryn Bigelow, director of The Hurt Locker (RT score 98%). In that case, please let it be The Hurt Locker.

Best Actor

The Hurt Locker’s success was based on the breathtaking cinematography, long suspenseful ‘takes’, the subject of the film and tight editing. Jeremy Renner only had to smoke, look tough and utter a couple of cool one-liners. Not what I would call Oscar material.

Morgan Freeman was probably born to play Mandela, but was his performance in Invictus worthy of an Oscar? I think not.

Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart) and George Clooney (Up in the Air) both put in powerful yet understated performances. I suspect the Oscar will go to Jeff Bridges, the safe choice, even though Colin Firth (A Sinlge Man) surpassed everyone with his performance as George, a man with a broken heart, going through the motions of what appears to be his last day alive.

Best Actress

Oh, just give the Oscar to Helen Mirren.

Best Supporting Actor

Christoph Waltz is the clear winner. He has received just about every award you can win as supporting actor over the last few months. He did outshine everyone else in Inglorious Bastards.

Best Supporting Actress

This is a tough one. The underrated Vera Farmiga had an extraordinary presence in ‘Up in The Air’, but Maggie Gyllenhaal was just as potent in Crazy Heart. If pressed, my vote would to go Vera.

At the end of the day, whether I agree with the nominations and eventual winners or not is irrelevant when you measure the impact this Academy Awards have had since its inception in 1929. (It can be attributed to the fact that it has always been publicly broadcast – first on radio then on TV after 1953.)

Nominations do influence ticket sales and the winners are guaranteed a slightly brighter future. The biggest impact of all is the recognition. It does inspire more films and give artists a goal to work towards. Certainly there is nothing wrong with that.

A highlight of the ceremony to be held this Sunday, March 7^th, is the co-host, the dirty rotten scoundrel that is Alec Baldwin. Hopefully he lives up to his ‘30Rock’ character and behaves suitably badly.

For more Oscar predictions visit Rotten Tomatoes and Time Magazine.

–          http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/hurt_locker/news/1873041/rt_covers_the_82nd_annual_academy_awards

–          http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/0,28757,1968189,00.html